Historical Tornado Information

Updated on February 27th

I presented at the 16th History Symposium (a part of the American Meteorological Society annual meeting) in Austin on Monday, January 8th. Here is a link that should allow you to access the Powerpoint slide show that I used. LINK-Click here The Extended Abstract is now complete and available on the AMS website and at this link: Extended Abstract (note that this version is in PDF format).

 LESSONS WE MUST LEARN - DEADLY TORNADOES IN CENTRAL TEXAS
Lon Curtis
Private Meteorologist, Round Rock, Texas
(Submitted and accepted for oral presentation)


Since January 1, 1880, at least 1,855 people have died as a result of tornadoes in Texas. The two deadliest tornadoes in Texas history both occurred within 100 miles of Austin. In 1902, 114 people died and over 250 were injured at Goliad, 97 miles south-southeast of Austin. In 1953, 114 people died and 597 were injured at Waco, 84 miles north-northeast of Austin. Retrospective surveys found that F5 damage occurred in the Waco storm and F4 damage in the Goliad storm. An examination of historical records of tornadoes in Texas found that many other significant deadly events (more than 20 deaths) have occurred within 150 miles of Austin: Edwards County, 1927 (74), Hill-Navarro-Ellis counties, 1930 (41), Karnes-De Witt counties, 1930 (36), Brown County, 1909 (34), Limestone County (and eastward), 1946 (30), Williamson County, 1997 (27), and Eastland County, 1893 (23).

While the frequency of deadly tornadoes in Central Texas has decreased in recent decades, there is no scientific evidence suggesting that significant tornado events will not occur again. In fact, as the population of Central Texas continues increasing rapidly, and as population density does likewise, the potential for increased casualties from significant tornadoes surely looms as an important public safety issue. Any strong or violent tornadoes in the future may well expose many hundreds (perhaps even thousands) to the threat of serious injury or death. In this context, an event that occurred in Austin on May 4, 1922, is instructive and deserves close examination. Two simultaneous tornadoes developed and moved from north-northeast to south-southwest across parts of Austin. The respective tracks of the tornadoes were separated laterally by less than four miles. One tornado developed just southeast of the State Capitol near 9th Street and Comal, and the other developed five to six miles to the northwest of the State Capitol, in what was then a rural area. Retrospective analysis produced a damage rating of F4 for the "eastern" tornado, and F2 for the "western" tornado. Twelve people died as a result of the "eastern" tornado; there were no known deaths associated with the "western" tornado. The total number of injured from both tornadoes combined was approximately sixty.

The population of Austin in 1922 is estimated to have been about 37,000. Today, the city's population is approaching 1,000,000, and while the geographic limits of the city have expanded, the population density has increased dramatically compared to previous eras. A significant tornado following either of the May 4, 1922 tracks today would pose the threat of a death toll in the hundreds, perhaps higher. Indeed, in an interview published in 1970 in the Austin American-Statesman, David Barnes, a meteorologist at the local National Weather Service office, speculated as follows: “If you think what could have happened if that tornado had hit this year, the death rate might have easily been 10 times as great.” Today, a much larger multiplier than 10 is almost certainly appropriate.

The famous words of George Santayana are echoing here: "Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it."


Historical Tornado Information

You can find my new page about the 1997 Central Texas Tornado Outbreak by clicking on this link. In the aftermath of the recent anniversary of that outbreak, I decided to prepare a graphic showing information regarding the ten deadliest tornadoes in Texas since 1900. One of my motivations for preparing the map and the related information was to investigate the current point of view held by some meteorologists, in both the government and private sectors, who apparently believe that flash floods are more dangerous than tornadoes, particularly for areas in South Central Texas. It certainly isn't my intent to diminish the deadly threat that flash floods present, but to re-emphasize that the threat from tornadoes is also an important issue affecting public safety. In fact, something in excess of 80% of the flash flood deaths in Texas since 1996 involved vehicles being driven into flooded roadways, crossings, underpasses, etc. That makes most flash flood deaths avoidable because they are a human behavioral issue. On the other hand, deaths caused by tornadoes are almost always not caused by human behavioral issues, save and except for the storm investigators who died near Moore, Oklahoma a couple of years ago. Most people seek to avoid or take cover when tornadoes threaten.






Tornado Outbreaks Spawned by Tropical Cyclones at Landfall
The subject of tornadoes produced by landfalling tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) has been a fascination (and a research interest) of mine for years. After working through several iterations of the research, the final manuscript was submitted an the A.M.S. journal. The A.M.S. journals, like most scientific publications, subject proposed articles to a formal peer review process. My manuscript was published in the April, 2004 issue of Weather and Forecasting. Here is a link to the article.

If you have comments or suggestions, email me at tloncurtis@gmail.com